Kerrville Has Nine Months of Housing Inventory and a Housing Shortage. Both Numbers Are Right.

If Kerrville has nine months of homes for sale, how can the city's own housing study say it's short by more than a thousand units?

Both numbers are accurate. In August 2026, MLS data compiled by the Texas A&M Real Estate Research Center showed 248 active listings in the Kerrville market area against 34 sales, or 9.16 months of inventory. Most people would call that a buyer's market. The Kerrville Housing Study puts net new unit demand at roughly 1,200 to 1,600 units. The two figures fit together once you see that they measure different houses. For anyone buying or selling near the bottom of Kerrville's price range, that difference shapes the deal more than the median does.

The Inventory Number Counts Resale Listings, and Not Many Sales

The research center is clear about what its numbers include. Its figures come from homes sold through MLS systems. New homes a builder sells directly to a buyer outside the MLS are left out, and so are existing homes sold off-market. So the "months of inventory" figure tracks how fast listed homes are moving. It says nothing about every home changing hands in town.

The sample is small, too. With 20 to 35 MLS sales a month, one or two higher or lower closings can move the median a long way.

Between January and May 2026, the median swung more than $116,000 on fewer than three dozen sales a month. The $15,000 drop from July to August 2026 says even less. The steadier signal is the inventory column, which has stayed between roughly 8 and 10.5 months since mid-2025. August 2026 sales were also up about 31% from August 2025. More homes are selling, and the shelf is staying just as full.

The September 2026 figures aren't out yet. The center releases data for areas outside Houston on or near the 20th day after the month ends.

The Shortage Number Counts Homes That Don't Exist Yet

The city study asked a different question: how many homes Kerrville needs for the people who work and want to live there. It estimated total demand at 2,000 to 2,500 new units. It counted 800 to 900 single-family lots already in the pipeline and arrived at net demand of 1,200 to 1,600 units. Applying Kerrville's 60/40 owner-renter split, that becomes roughly 720 to 960 for-sale homes and 480 to 640 rentals.

The study named the pressure behind those numbers. About 1,000 workers commute more than 50 miles into Kerrville. Land inside city limits is limited, and the study calls for smaller lots and higher density. It also says attainable workforce housing should come ahead of senior-focused development.

Put the two measures side by side and the paradox goes away. Resale listings can sit for months at prices and in places that don't fit a commuting worker's budget. Meanwhile, the homes that do fit that budget are being built from scratch, and some of those sales never show up in MLS totals.

The Entry-Level Resale Seller's Real Competition

This is where the gap becomes a pricing problem. Lennar's Windridge, off Loop 534 behind Hal Peterson Middle School, is planned for up to 490 homes on 100 acres, with a 10-year buildout and city tax-increment reimbursement capped at $27 million over 30 years. When we checked the builder's own site while preparing this post, Windridge was listed as actively selling at an advertised range of $248,249 to $334,999, with 24 homes available. One listed plan had four bedrooms, two baths and 1,483 square feet at $252,249.

Almost that whole range falls below the $327,500 August median. A seller listing a dated three-bedroom resale in the $250,000s or $300,000s is asking a buyer to give up new systems, a builder warranty and move-in-ready condition, all for about the same money. The builder also controls its own release schedule, and new homes sold directly may not be counted in the comps the seller's price is measured against.

Lennar's earlier Kerrville project shows how deep that buyer pool has been. At a City Council workshop covered by the Kerrville Daily Times, held the same session the Cailloux Theater reported on its 2024 year, Assistant City Manager Michael Hornes said 80 of Ridgeland's 130 sites had sold and eight more were under contract, at an average price of $254,000. That figure is well over a year old. It still shows where buyers were concentrated.

Rentals are moving the same way. Bluewood, a 273-unit apartment community on Holdsworth Drive near the Kerrville Sports Complex, is now leasing. The state's TDLR project record lists a completion date of February 15, 2026 for its clubhouse and leasing office. Some households that might have bought an older starter home now have a new rental option.

The Next 500 Lots Run on a Plat Schedule

Next up is D.R. Horton's Town Creek, between Interstate 10 and Holdsworth Drive around the city's baseball and softball fields. As reported by The Kerr County Lead, the preliminary layout covers 130.563 acres of a 304-acre tract in six phases. Lots are typically 45 by 120 feet, with a 35-by-70-foot building pad, which works out to roughly 500 lots. That's the smaller-lot, denser pattern the housing study called for.

On October 1, 2026, the Planning and Zoning Commission approved the Unit 1 final plat 4–0 in about nine minutes. The plat covers 30.965 acres and 100 lots, and the applicant is Continental Homes of Texas, a D.R. Horton subsidiary. The Lead's coverage also noted that this summer the commission couldn't gather a quorum to act on the preliminary plat, so it was approved automatically under state law.

Approval doesn't mean construction is about to start. The plat can't be recorded until eight conditions are met. The biggest one ties back to the July 16 flood. The developer has to resubmit the preliminary plat with:

1. New specifications for the low-water crossing where the collector road meets Town Creek Road
2. A new northwest intersection connecting an interior street to Town Creek Road, giving neighboring properties a second way out
3. A no-objection letter from TxDOT on the existing traffic impact analysis

Staff said the developer has committed to widening the crossing and adding the second access point. The remaining steps include engineering sign-off, third-party drainage approval, utility easement agreement, street-name approval, parkland fees, and either completed public improvements or a subdivision improvement agreement. A tree preservation permit is required before any clearing.

In Texas, plat approval is largely ministerial. A commission has to approve a plat that meets the adopted rules, though it can attach conditions. Town Creek's timing now depends on engineering and conditions more than on whether the market wants the houses.

The Tract That Shows How Lumpy Supply Is

Rezoning and annexation work differently. Under proposed Ordinance No. 2025-03, D.R. Horton asked the city to annex and rezone about 263 acres on Texas Hwy. 173, between Kerrville-Schreiner Park and Comanche Trace, for as many as 1,150 homes. The builder's attorney estimated prices at $350,000 to $420,000, with about a 10-year buildout. Planning and Zoning had approved the request 4–1, and the 2050 Comprehensive Plan identified the land as a strategic catalyst area. City Council denied it 5–0. The research turned up no report of that tract being resubmitted.

Kerrville's new supply arrives in large blocks: 490 homes here, 500 lots there, 1,150 that never happened. Each block depends on a council vote or a plat condition, so the city's shortage estimate and its resale inventory can both stay high for years without closing the gap. The steady 9-month inventory and the rising sales count fit that pattern. New homes are being absorbed somewhere in the market, while a resale listing in the wrong price band waits.

What the Gap Means When You're Comparing Homes

For a buyer, the headline median blends two markets. Below roughly $335,000, a resale home is competing with new construction on condition and warranty. Above that range, resale listings make up most of the choices, and nine months of supply means less competition among buyers.

For a seller, the comps that matter may include builder pricing the MLS summary doesn't capture. A useful check for any Kerrville listing is whether the home falls inside or outside Windridge's advertised range. If it falls inside, the comparison set includes a builder's model home. Our home valuation and seller resources start from that kind of property-level comparison. More on the town itself is in our Kerrville neighborhood guide.

Quick Answers

Will the September numbers change the picture? They could move the median, since one month of roughly 30 sales is noisy. A big change in the inventory trend would be more surprising. The center's schedule puts the release near October 20.

Are the city's pipeline figures adding up toward the goal? They measure different things. At that same workshop, Hornes's update counted about 1,300 units toward a 3,000-unit need from a 2019 study. The later housing study counts 800 to 900 single-family lots against 2,000 to 2,500 units of demand. The two shouldn't be added together, and neither has a 2026 update in the research.

When will Town Creek homes be available? No construction start date has been reported. Unit 1 still has to meet its eight recording conditions first.

If you're weighing a Kerrville resale against a new build, or pricing a home that falls inside the builders' range, Wynne-Smith Horton Real Estate Group can walk through the comparison with you, house by house. Contact Us when you'd like the two of us to look at it.

This article is general information, not legal, tax or financial advice. Consult a qualified professional about your situation.